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At first, Donald Trump seemed to take a firm position on Ukraine. After making threats of "severe ramifications" during the summer if Putin continued blocking truce talks, Trump eventually introduced major penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously impacted the Russian leader's ability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, reportedly developed by both nations' officials excluding Ukrainian or European participation, he has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Aggression

This plan would in practice benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative in reality compromise that essential autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, Trump persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, like ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian territory will appease the leader. But, Putin's military campaign is not only about occupying a charred region of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's apparent desire to weaken it so it no longer serves as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that his increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

While keeping in position the presently split regions of these areas, Trump's initiative would compel the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk region. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been failed to seize in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukrainian military defenses severely compromised.

This region is the place of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that are a essential obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a clear way to the capital should he eventually decide to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would make renewed conflict more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the size of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's plan sets no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's efforts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected administration as Nazis, Trump's plan declares: "Every Nazi doctrine and practices must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, Trump sets no condition that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in Russia.

Protection Assurances

To be sure, the plan makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its position of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But given that Putin has broken similar accords in the past – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to recognize the nation's borders in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a truce and a handback of occupied areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should anyone trust Putin now?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on external security guarantees. Although the proposal threatens a "immediate coordinated military response" should Russia resume its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the details range from fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not just block Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the reassurance force, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Putin from replenishing his diminished military, restocking, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

Another parallel deal apparently would grant the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "significant, planned, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault endangering the peace and security of the Western nations." This indicates a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary defense against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of alliance members, such as the US administration, to act militarily to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not