Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.